Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Momentum Is Not Inevitable

Is there such a thing as political momentum?  I’m certain both the Repubs and Dems wish there is such a thing as political momentutm, due to their thirst for power and control in those halls of Congress.  Unfortunately, momentum is simply another lucky rabbitt’s foot, lovingly stroked for its supernatural properties in an effort to bring about events which may, or may not occur.

Writing in the Chicago Tribune, Steve Chapman also casts a jaundiced eye on momentum in a piece titled A fictional concept that is gathering momentum.

From Chapman’s piece.

The concept is hard to resist. Start a boulder rolling down a hill, and it will keep rolling unless something arrests its progress. Humans make sense of the world by looking for causes and patterns, and when we see something happen, we often assume it will keep happening.

There are plenty of examples when that assumption seems to pan out: A political party leading in the polls in October proceeds to win in November. The Dow Jones average rises one week and then rises again the next. The baseball team that wins the first two games goes on to take the best-of-seven series.

But the momentum that people use to explain these events is an illusion. Obviously, trends happen. Some people get disillusioned with the party in power, and then others do the same. But that doesn’t mean the first occurrence led inevitably to the second.

Posted by John Venlet on 10/17 at 06:46 AM
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