Chicken Little

I read the asteroid article yesterday and thought, too ridiculous to comment on.  I realize an asteroid striking the earth is possible, but I would bet that the odds of it happening are statistically miniscule.

The article I read, via Drudge, is titled “Earth almost put on impact alert." The writer breathlessly draws us into his fear of the potential devastation such an event would produce.  Get President Bush on the phone!  And me without my worry beads.

This morning I read this.

"VC readers will know I am skeptical of many government interventions. But I view asteroid protection as a genuine public good. Budget deficit or not, we are not spending enough money to address this problem."


Those words were written by Tyler Cowen and were posted over at The Volokh Conspiracy.

C’mon Tyler, be serious.  The sky is not falling, but if it does, throwing money at it, in an attempt to stop it, is preposterous.  It would be better to adopt a somewhat more cavalier attitude about this miniscule possibility.  For example.  I served on the 688 class submarine, the USS Los Angeles (SSN688). The boat had two watertight compartments, forward and aft.  At times, crewmembers would speak of what they would do if we were struck by a torpedo while operating at depth, or, some other catastrophic hull failure occurred.  As if.  Basically, the only option available, if such a catastrophe struck, was wishful thinking or rational thought.  The rational thought was, if this happens, bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.

Posted by on 02/26 at 07:09 AM

  1. However, all it would take to avert an asteroid impact would be to alter any ‘roid’s course by 6 minutes (the time it takes Earth to move its diameter along its orbit).

    We have the concievable technology to actually do something of this sort (nudging rocks away from killing us), so Tyler’s bit isn’t so far-fetched. Except that we shouldn’t be specializing in rock-deflection, but in general space transport & ability to move about in space at will.

    THe ability to deflect an asteroid would be part and parcel with routine trans-LEO space travel.

    Posted by Brian Doss  on  02/26  at  08:19 AM

  2. John,

    “...I read the asteroid article yesterday and thought, too ridiculous to comment on.  I realize an asteroid striking the earth is possible, but I would bet that the odds of it happening are statistically miniscule....”

    This analysis is deeply flawed. The question of an asteroid hitting the earth is not one of probability, but one of absolute certainty. It has happened uncountable times before and it WILL happen again and again until such time as no entity that can be called earth will still exist.

    Whether or not it happens in your or my lifetime is a selfish viewpoint of little consequence in the long run, ... etc.

    You are free to judge that the cost of attempted prevention exceeds the subjective benefits, or that whether the government is an appropriate agency for the task, but the potential discounted present subjective value of indefinite species survival is not to be sneezed at.

    Regards, Don Lloyd

    Posted by  on  02/26  at  09:35 AM

  3. Brian and Don -

    First, thanks for your comments.  I understand the points you are making.  As “flawed” as my analysis may be, I offer you some additional reading on this subject.

    First, a report from NASA.

    NASA on probability.

    "This all sounds pretty scary. However,...so the probability of a major collision is quite small."

    Second, also from NASA.

    NASA NEO News: Open Letter to Congress on Near Earth Objects.

    "There is a significant probability (20%) of such an object colliding with the Earth during the next century."

    Is 20% significant?  How much money are you personally willing to bet if your chances of winning the bet are 20%?

    From the Cornell Theory Center.

    "According to Bottke, “One kilometer (about 0.6 of a mile) in size is thought to be a magic number, because it has been estimated that these asteroids are capable of wreaking global devastation if they hit the Earth."

    I hesitate to accept “magic” numbers.

    Last, but not least.  Each of these studies boils down to one thing only.  Calls for MORE MONEY to be misappropriated from Americans to fund university studies.

    Is there a chance, a probability, a “certainty” that the earth will be struck by a asteroid or meteor?  Indeed there is.  Am I worried about it.  Not likely.  Should you be?  I would say no, but the final decision is yours.  Should you be calling for money from my pocket to calculate probabilities of this or fund construction of preventive equipment at prohibitive prices.  No.

    Posted by  on  02/26  at  10:19 AM

  4. I agree with Brian on this one.

    Posted by shonk  on  02/26  at  08:08 PM

  5. “Is 20% significant?  How much money are you personally willing to bet if your chances of winning the bet are 20%?”

    Depends on the payoff. Let’s turn this around: I hand you my 5-shot Taurus model 431 .44 Special, and invite you to play Russian Roulette. Your odds of “winning” are 20%. Is this signifigant?

    Now argument by analogy is always flawed, and the .44-in-the-head is more analogous to the Yucatan strike than Tunguska. NASA carefully lumps all of the probabilities together, unfairly in my book.

    My main beef is that “we” aren’t spending diddly-squat. Tyler Cowen is advocating that *my* money be taken and spent to relieve *his* fears. Clue for the clueless, Tyler: you’re no different, in principle, from any two-bit commie yelping about ‘the chillun’.

    Posted by John Lopez  on  02/26  at  09:24 PM

  6. While thinking about my comments to Brian and Don last night, I thought of another flawed analogy.  Not so long ago shark attacks were in the news.  Everyone was concerned for the “people” who swam in the ocean with sharks.  There were many minds considering what should be done to protect the people from the sharks.

    The asteroid issue is somewhat similar.  I want to protect the people from sharks.  My solution is to install a shocking device on sharks and then to lay an invisible fence line along the ocean floor so many hundreds of yards from the beach.  If a shark attempts to cross the line, the shocking device activates and exposes the shark to a large enough electric jolt to turn it from its intended path towards the beach.

    The idea is feasible.  There are quantifiable results.  Tracking of sharks is enabled, as is determining which sharks have been tagged with a shocking device, and beaches are safe for people to swim.

    Can I get money for that?

    Posted by  on  02/27  at  04:11 AM

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